NinetyWhat is xG (expected goals)?
xG, short for expected goals, is the probability that a shot turns into a goal, from 0 (no chance) to 1 (a certain goal). Add up every shot in a match and you get a number that says how many goals a team “should” have scored from the chances it made.
How one shot gets its number
A model looks at thousands of past shots and asks: how often did a shot like this go in? A penalty is scored about three times in four, so it is worth roughly 0.76 xG. A shot from a tight angle at the edge of the box is worth a few percent. A tap-in from two yards is worth most of a goal.
The things that move the number are mostly about where and how the shot was taken: distance to goal, the angle, whether it was a header or a foot, whether it came from open play, a set piece or a quick counter, and how many defenders and the keeper were in the way. Different providers use different models, so the same shot can be 0.12 on one site and 0.09 on another. That is normal.
How to read a match xG
If a team wins 1-0 with 0.4 xG against 2.3 xG, it was lucky: the other side made far better chances. Over one match anything can happen, so a single xG line is a story, not a verdict. Over ten or twenty matches it becomes a much better guide to how good a team really is than the table, because goals are rare and luck takes a long time to even out.
Compare a team’s goals with its xG across a season. Far more goals than xG usually means hot finishing that tends to cool off. Far fewer means unlucky finishing, or a striker who is not as good as the chances he gets.
xG for defence: xGA and the difference
xG against (xGA) is the same idea turned round: the quality of chances a team lets the opponent have. The difference between xG and xGA over a season is one of the best simple measures of a team’s strength, and it is what many forecasting models start from.
Related numbers you will see
- xGOT (xG on target): the chance of a goal once you know where in the goal the shot was heading. It rates the finishing, not the chance.
- xA (expected assists): the xG of the shots a player’s passes create.
- npxG: xG without penalties, a cleaner view of open-play threat.
Turn two xG numbers into a result
Put a match’s xG for each side into the match probability calculator and it shows how often each result and scoreline should happen. It is the quickest way to feel why 1.6 xG against 1.1 is a favourite but nowhere near a lock. Ninety shows xG on every match page and across a season in the team stats, hidden along with the score if you are watching on delay.
Questions
Is a high xG good?
For an attacking side, yes: it means the team is creating good chances. For a defence you want it low, because that is the quality of chances it concedes.
Can xG be more than 1 in a match?
Yes. A single shot is never above 1, but a team’s match xG is the total of all its shots, so 2.5 or 3 xG is common for a dominant team.
Why do different websites show different xG?
Each provider trains its own model on its own data, so the values differ a little. Compare numbers from one source, not across sources.
Does xG predict who will win?
It is a better predictor of future results than past goals or shots, but football has a lot of luck. xG improves forecasts; it does not make them certain.
Last updated Sunday 1 November 2026. Written by the Ninety team; spot a mistake? [email protected].