Who is likely to win? Win chances from prediction markets

Before every big match, thousands of people put real money on the outcome. Ninety turns those prices into a simple three-way bar: home win, draw, away win.

Where the numbers come from

Ninety reads public prices from two regulated prediction markets, Polymarket and Kalshi. A market price of 63 cents for “Juventus to win” means the crowd puts that outcome at about 63%. Ninety normalises the three outcomes so they add up to 100%, and shows the market it came from under the bar.

When both markets list the match and they disagree by five points or more, Ninety shows the second market too and flags the disagreement. That is often the most interesting moment: one crowd knows something about a line-up the other has not priced in yet.

See how the chances moved

Tap the bar to open the chart. Before kick-off it shows the last week, so you can see the moment a star player was ruled out or a manager was sacked. During the match it switches to live movement, minute by minute. A small arrow beside each number marks a real swing of two points or more in the last day.

Information, not gambling

Ninety shows win chances for information only. There are no betting links, no bookmaker offers, no odds formats and nothing to place a bet with. It is the same kind of number a commentator quotes before a match, sourced openly. If you are hiding the score, live win chances are hidden too, because a 97% bar in the 80th minute tells you the result.

Season-long markets on club pages

Club pages show the market view of the whole season where those markets exist: the chance of winning the league, of finishing in the Champions League places, or of relegation. Next to it, expected goals and expected points tell you whether a club’s position is luck or form.

Questions

Are prediction market chances accurate?

Markets are not always right, but across many matches they are well calibrated: outcomes priced at 60% happen roughly 60% of the time. They also react quickly to team news.

Can I bet through Ninety?

No. Ninety has no betting features or links and takes no money from bookmakers.

Why is there no bar for some matches?

Not every match has a market. Lower-profile fixtures and some cup ties are not listed on either market.